KATHMANDU: Nepali Congress (NC)-led coalition and CPN (UML)-led electoral alliance is likely to see stiff competition in the November 20 elections.
The Congress-led coalition includes the Maoist Center and the CPN (Samajwadi) and other parties, while the UML-led alliance includes the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-N).
Let’s take a close look at the candidates representing both sides. It is evident that there will be stiff competition in most constituencies.
But coincidentally, apart from JSP Chairperson Upendra Yadav, top leaders of other political parties do not have strong competitors.
JSP’s Yadav seems to be in a trouble by changing the alliance at the last moment.
On the other hand, RPP Chairman Rajendra Lingden’s competitor Krishna Prasad Sitaula of NC is a strong candidate as he has also the support of the Maoist Center, Socialist, and Janamorcha Nepal.
But Lingden seems to have a strong base because of his influence in his constituency and UML’s support.
In terms of other top leaders, including NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba, UML Chairperson KP Sharma Oli, Maoist Center Chairperson Prachanda, and Unified Socialist Chairperson Madhav Kumar Nepal do not have strong contenders.
This shows that their victory is almost certain.
Sher Bahadur Deuba
Deuba, who has been winning elections from Dadeldhura since 2048 BS, is secure this time.
Karna Bahadur Malla of Congress (BP) and Chakra Prasad Snehi of UML are in the fray in Deuba’s constituency.
Malla, who is also the Vice President of BP Congress, is a leader who has been groomed by Deuba. Similarly, UML’s Snehi is a former member of the National Assembly.
Deuba defeated his nearest rival by 7,000 votes in the previous election garnering 28,044 votes.
In the last local elections in Dadeldhura, the three major parties of the ruling coalition, the NC, the Maoist Center and the Unified Samajwadi Party, garnered around 28,000 votes.
Meanwhile, the UML and Congress (BP) could garner only 13,500 votes. Based on this, Deuba can still be ahead by about 15,000 votes in the upcoming election.
KP Sharma Oli
Oli, who has been competing in every election since 2048, was defeated only one time in 2064 BS.
Oli, who is contesting from Jhapa-5, is contending with Khagendra Adhikari of NC. The RPP has not fielded any candidate in Oli’s constituency.
UML’s Chairperson Oli won Adhikari by a margin of 28,824 votes in the 2074 BS election when there was a Left alliance then.
In the recently-held local elections, three major ruling parties (NC, Maoist Center and United Socialist Party) garnered 39,400 votes.
The RPP garnered 8,700 votes. In total, the votes of UML and RPP are likely to get more votes than the ruling coalition.
Pushpa Kamal Dahal
Chairman of the Maoist Center Pushpa Kamal Dahal who is adept at changing constituencies has chosen Gorkha Constituency-2 this time.
Dahal’s rival candidate Abdus Miya of the UML party is weak in the constituency.
In the last general election, Dahal garnered 48,276 votes from Chitwan Constituency-3 with the support of the Left alliance, defeating his nearest rival of the NC party by 9,341 votes.
During the last local-level ward-wise analysis the Maoist Center has 22,200 votes in Gorkha-2.
And the votes are likely to reach 43,300 when 21,100 votes of NC are added to it.
Moreover, the UML has only 7,900 votes in the constituency. Based on this calculation, Dahal is likely to win the election by a wide margin.
Madhav Kumar Nepal
Despite being a new party, and due to the support of the ruling coalition, the election competition is not considered difficult even for Madhav Nepal.
Nepal, who contested from Kathmandu-2 in the previous election, is contesting from Rautahat Constituency-1 this time.
The main opposition UML has fielded Ajay Kumar Gupta against Madhav Nepal.
Based on the votes received by the ward chairman in the constituency, the Unified Socialist had 19,698 votes, NC 16,928, and the Maoist Center 8,191 votes.
The UML had 27 thousand 800 votes. Therefore, Madhav Nepal is likely to win the election by a wide margin.
Rajendra Lingden
In the 2074 BS election, NC’s Krishna Sitaula garnered 31,159 votes, while Lingden got 44,614 votes.
The UML party had supported Lingden. UML has not fielded a candidate in the constituency this time either.
In the last local elections in Jhapa Constituency-3, NC got 21,735 votes.
The UML got 17,006 votes. Lingden’s party RPP was in the third position with 16,927 votes.
Likewise, the Maoists got a total of 4,835 votes and the JSP garnered 474 votes.
And if the votes garnered by UML, JSP and RPP in the local elections are totaled, it seems that Sitaula will have difficulty in Jhapa Constituency 3.
If the votes received by UML, JSP and RPP are added it makes 38,007 while the votes of the ruling coalition will only be around 26,570. Thus, Sitaula is behind by 11,000 votes.
Trouble for Upendra Yadav
In the 2074 BS election, Upendra Yadav was elected as a candidate from the Federal Socialist Party from Saptari-2 by allying with the RJP.
Yadav received 21,620 votes from the constituency and got elected to the House of Representatives.
Umesh Kumar Yadav of the CON-UML got 11,580 votes.
This time, Yadav is competing with LSP leader Jaya Prakash Thakur and Janamat Party Chairperson Dr. CK Raut.
Analyzing the outcome of the recently-held local elections, the Loktantrik Socialist Party won in 2 of the 4 municipalities, and the Nepali Congress and the Janata Samajwadi Party won 1 each.
Based on the votes received by the ward presidents in the Saptari 2 local-level elections last May, the ruling coalition is far ahead.
JSP ward president received 14,403 votes in the local elections.
Likewise, UML’s ward president candidate received 5,951 votes. Adding the votes of the two parties, it makes 20,354 votes.
On the other hand, the ruling coalition has more than 12,000 votes than the votes of JSP and UML in the constituency.
In the local elections, LSP’s ward chairman candidate got 10,435 votes and NC’s candidate got 10,807 votes.
Similarly, candidates from the Maoist Center garnered 9,534 votes and candidates from the United Socialist received 2,408 votes.
